New Zealand visitors, 1980 to 2000

Explain that a multiplicative model forecasts the logarithms of the values into the future.

forecast of log(Data)   =   (forecast Seasonal*)  +  (forecast Trend*)  +  (forecast Cyclical*)

With base-10 logs,

forecast of Data   =   10 forecast of log(Data)
 

Click Seasonal, Trend and Cyclical to forecast these components 3 years into the future.

Use the slider to return the data and forecasts to the original scale. (Click on the time series to get the numerical values of the forecasts.)

This time series describes the numbers of short-term visitor arrivals in New Zealand (in thousands) each quarter from 1980 to 2000.