Unemployment rate in the USA

Contrast seasonal patterns (that repeat in regular periods such as every 12 months) and cyclical patterns whose periods are less regular — e.g. the 'business cycle' is usually between 3 and 10 years.

The example is monthly but there is no noticeable 12-month seasonal pattern.

State that the AR(1) model can be used to obtain forecasts.

The data set shows monthly civilian unemployment rate in the USA between 1970 and 1999.