The probability of an event can be defined as the long-term proportion of times that it occurs when the experiment is repeated. Unfortunately, although this explains the concept of the event's probability, it does not provide a numerical value in practice — the experiment cannot be repeated an infinite number of times.
However although we cannot repeat the experiment an infinite number of times, the proportion of times that the event occurs in a large number of repetitions will give an approximate value for the probability — an estimate of its value.
Survival of silkworm larvae
From the following data set, estimate the probability that a silkworm will survive at least 300 seconds.
270 254 293 244 293 261 285 330 284 274 |
307 235 215 292 309 267 275 298 241 254 |
256 275 226 287 280 339 294 298 283 366 |
300 310 280 240 291 286 230 285 218 279 |
280 286 345 289 210 282 260 228 243 259 |
285 275 280 296 283 248 314 258 215 299 |
240 241 236 255 267 271 253 271 233 260 |
273 233 271 267 258 319 310 302 260 251 |
(Solved in full version)